środa, 26 lutego 2025

Healthy mind

 5 non-negotiables for a healthy mind (and as a result, better decision making/productivity).

• Exercise daily • Sleep 8+ hours/night • Healthy diet • Sport 2x per week (ideally competitive) • Daily social interaction

wtorek, 25 lutego 2025

AI

 

High agency

Human intelligence doesn’t hold the value it once did. The narrative has shifted—high agency is now the most precious trait. It means you never choose to be an NPC. You control your Sim—every choice moves you toward your vision. No autopilot. More agency, more long-term happiness.

Comment:

Grok explanation is ~close: “Agency, as a personality trait, refers to an individual's capacity to take initiative, make decisions, and exert control over their actions and environment. It’s about being proactive rather than reactive—someone with high agency doesn’t just let life happen to them; they shape it. Think of it as a blend of self-efficacy, determination, and a sense of ownership over one’s path. People with strong agency tend to set goals and pursue them with confidence, even in the face of obstacles. They’re the type to say, “I’ll figure it out,” and then actually do it. On the flip side, someone low in agency might feel more like a passenger in their own life, waiting for external forces—like luck, other people, or circumstances—to dictate what happens next. It’s not quite the same as assertiveness or ambition, though it can overlap. Agency is quieter, more internal—it’s the belief that you *can* act, paired with the will to follow through. Psychologists often tie it to concepts like locus of control: high-agency folks lean toward an internal locus, feeling they steer their fate, while low-agency folks might lean external, seeing life as something that happens *to* them.”

Trends 2025 - 2030 Business

 If you look at the current world environment you can see some mega trends: 1) rich and poor divide, 2) decline in high-paying white collar professions - number of seats and 3) large number of people with no families - single forever.

This means the following pulls will be prevalent for a long time: 1) need to retain status, 2) high paying professionals seeing a -50% drop in their income with no recovery in sight and 3) people in their 40s stuck in perpetual adolescence + suffering from loneliness.

Answers to all of these:

  • VR/AR: Since Tech is deflationary, in 10 years, people will spend practically all of their time in front of some sort of screen. Your online profile will be more important than you in person profile. Also a good temporary cure for loneliness

  • Substitute Goods for Upper Middle Class Specifically: At this point, even upper middle class people are forced into substitution goods. Go through the list of items you would personally get rid of and write down the replacement. Boom, that’s the industry you should be in. We mentioned a few on the paid stack which are growing like weeds currently

  • PEDs: With competition for jobs that pay $300K (not even $500K+ anymore) reaching a boiling point, you’ll see a big wave of performance enhancing products. Could be brains could be muscles. Same direction

    • On this note, we’ve seen a large number of high paying MDs/Directors on Wall Street get cut and on the beach for 12-18 months. Many end up in new seats that are down 30-50% on average (total comp). As a rule of thumb in this industry after 1 year it’s -30% or more

  • Middle Age Activities: We all watched as pickleball went mainstream due to older people moving from Tennis to Pickleball as a social gathering of choice. The noise pollution aside, you’ll likely witness a similar trend argeting people in their 40s. Creating mixers for the perpetually single will grow at a rapid rate. That random Cougar bar is going to be a regular bar/wine venue in about 5 years

  • Odd Financial and Wage Gap Relationships: Expect to see more younger guys dating women older than them (in this case the woman has the money). Expect limited access for middle of the road guys since they won’t live up to hype anymore (historically the majority of middle aged men had significant savings, no longer the case)

  • Increase in Looks Maxxing: Already seeing this with men on the fringes. Will go up 20 fold for both men and women. 40 will be the new 20. As the marketing angle

  • Spirituality/Witchcraft/Superstition: All of this is largely the same group as gambling. Looking for ways to create luck in their personal/financial lives via spells and other gimmicks. Also ties into loneliness as it’s a form of psychology if doing in person spirituality work (think retreats and even drug recovery type events)

  • Find a pain point (not a pleasure point). People want to remove pain more than they want to seek pleasure

  • If you find a growing pain point that is a growing market and you’ll be able to spin up something that does $5K a month or up to $20-50K a month

  • If you can make it cool or trendy (great marketing like Tough Mudder or really extreme like the Kardashians), you can scale to the millions

None of the above is related to financial spread sheets or logical decisions. In the end 99% of people will make their actual choice based on emotion. The 7 bullets in the below are the mega trends, start there go down the rabbit hole of demand testing:

poniedziałek, 17 lutego 2025